joi, 24 februarie 2011

Isărescu: “Stimularea consumului este o idee proastă"

Presedintele Bancii Nationale Romane (BNR), Domnul Mugur Isarescu, a iesit recent pe mass madia si a proclamat sus si tare ca “Stimularea consumului este o idee proasta”. De acord! Dar de ce BNR sub obladuirea sa in ultimi 21 de ani a practicat tocmai contrariul a ceea ce propavaduieste?

Precum am mai scris in articole anterioare, BNR a marit baza monetara din economie de 8 ori in ultimi 8 ani. (800%) Tiparirea de bani fara acoperire si distribuirea acestora in economie genereaza cerere de consum fara acoperire in productie. Aceasta cerere suplimentara este echilibrata de inflatie, unde pretul unitar creste pana cand cantitatea de bani este proportionala cu pretul bunurilor si serviciilor produse. Cererea suplimentara generata de tiparirere de bani fara acoperire este echilibrata si de satisfacerea acestei cereri cu bunuri si servicii produse in alta parte. Importuri mai exact. De aici vin si deficitele pana nu demult enorme ale Romaniei moderne. Dar sa exemplificam:

Asumam o economie in echilibru formata din productie de 10 oua si o cantitate de bani de 10 lei. Ce se intampla daca Banca Nationala tipareste fara acoperire inca 10 lei si distribuie acesti bani populatiei prin variate metode? Cantitatea de bani va creste la 20 de Lei, cererea de oua va creste la 20 de oua, dar economia produce doar zece! De unde diferenta? DIN IMPORT! Si IATA CUM BNR STIMULEAZA CONSUMUL NESABUIT!  Povestea reala este ceva mai complicata, cererea suplimentara generata de tiparire fara acoperire fiind echilibrata de o combinatie intre inflatie, importuri si politici fiscale.

Povestea nu se opreste aici, metodele prin care BNR stimuleaza activ consumul de bunuri si servicii fara acoperire, hai sa il numim consum nesabuit, nu se sfarste cu tiparnita. Prin puterea de reglementare asupra sistemului bancar, BNR s-a folosit din plin si de aceasta parghie pentru stimularea consumului. In plina bula expansionista, clar nesustenabila chiar si unui orb de ce oare BNR a relaxat creditarea pana la limite absolut jenante? Cine a aprobat ca rata lunara la credite sa poata creste de la 30% la 70% din veniturile medii lunare? Si asta la momentul in care romania consuma mai mult de cat producea in valoare de peste 20 miliarde EURO! Intr-un moment in care consumul era clar nesustenabil BNR a turnat gaz pe foc stimuland si mai mult un consum nesabuit fapt ce a garantat ca actuala recesiune sa fie mult mai dura de cat ar fi trebuit sa fie. 

Pentru ca stimularea consumului nesabuit sa fie garantata, BNR a mers si mai departe! A garantat preturi accesibile bunurilor din import! Cum? Folosinduse de prerogativele legislative pentru a ghida cursul RON la valori ce confera putere de cumparare artificial de mare, mult peste capacitatea naturala a economiei. De la revolutie si pana azi, BNR a practicat mereu dobanzi de referinta cu mult peste cele dictate de echilibrul economic, stimuland astfel finantarea prin capital strain a consumului nesabuit autohton.  

Domnul Mugur Isarescu, arata cu degetul ideile proaste din ograda politicienilor refuzand sa observe ideile catastrofale ce le impune noua tuturor. 

Observa oare cineva ca ideile proaste ale politicienilor de stimulare a consumului nesustenabil sunt posibile doar sub obladuirea BNR? Cu ce bani maresc politicienii beneficiile populiste de crestere a veniturilor si asistentei sociale neacoperite in crestere de productivitate? Cu bani imprumutati intern si extern de catre statul roman. Fara tiparnita BNR, creditarea interna a statului s-ar fi lovit de zid de mult timp, iar ce externa asisderea (fara managementul cursului de schimb si a dobanzii de referinta).

CONCLUZIE:
BNR a fost si este promotorul principal al stimularii cresterii consumului nesustenabil, neacoperit de crestere a productiei de bunuri si servicii.

NEDUMERIRE:
Imi este greu sa cred ca cele scrise mai sus nu sunt arhi cunoscute si intelese de conducatorii BNR, ce nu pot sa inteleg insa este de ce se iau atatea masuri de stimulare a consumului bunurilor de sorginte straina cand acest lucru clar dauneaza grav tuturor locuitorilor acestei tari?

111 comentarii:

Anonim spunea...

raspuns la nedumerire: din acelasi motiv pentru care s-a intamplat ceva in decembrie 89 si acelasi motiv pentru care acelasi isarescu ocupa acelasi post din ianuarie 90... Astea de fapt sunt motive ''motivate'' de retorica intrebarii tale. Cred ca mai simplu era de aia... sau ca asa vrea muschii lui...

Paun Cristian spunea...

Abia astept să văd că am avut cu toții dreptate. Stimularea consumului cu orice preț ne va duce către o nouă criză!

Mi-a plăcut articolul. Se vede clar că mai nou Guvernatorul BNR a început să facă tot felul de declarații politice care nu au nici o legătură cu funcția sa monetară și nici cu pregătirea sa de economist. Se pregătește de funcția de Președinte al României.

Anonim spunea...

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Anonim spunea...

nu inteleg, dl Citu spunea ca masa monetara este acum mai mica decat in 2008.si in plus in acest moment consumul este la cel mai scazut nivel de dupa 2008,lumea a inceput in cel mai fericit caz sa economiseasca,asta, economisirea, a crescut putin.
ce explicati dvs aici pare inteligibil,dar inca o data intreb: nici un economist cunoscut ,cosea,daianu, ilie sebanescu , asti aau fost si politicieni la un moment dat ,astia nu si-au dat seama de ce face isarescu???????

Anonim spunea...

in plus daca tiparnita bnr a incurajat consumul, pai fedul acum ce face? ce, si astia sunt din agenturi straine?

poate ce spuneti dvs sa fi fost valabil pana in 2008, dar dupa nu mai inteleg, e zapacitor ce spuneti.
gabriela filip

i-conomics spunea...

@Anonim:

- Domnul Citu probabil se refera la o segventa limitata in timp a Masei Monetare Restranse, cea Larga, numita M3 de fapt pe perioada crizei a crescut cu peste 25% cam exact cu acelasi procentaj cu care a crescut si inflatia in aceeasi perioada - ce coincidenta! -

Economistii politicieni cunoscuti, nu stiu daca si-au dat seama ce facea Domnul Isarescu, dar cu siguranta au beneficiat de actiunile sale, actiuni ce fundamental au taxat cetatenii acestei tari prin inflatie, iar o parte din banii astfel obtiunti au ajuns la stat unde acesti politicieni economisti i-au putut cheltui dupa bunul plac.

i-conomics spunea...

Gabriela Filip:

1. BNR nu este FED. FED datorita rolului dolarului american de rezerva valutara principala, poate sa tipareasca cu efecte inflationiste mult mai scazute de cat la un act similar de tiparire a BNR. FED-ul poate tipari un miliard USD cu care sa cumpere petrol sau propriile obligatiuni, BNR nu poate sa faca asa ceva, nimeni nu vinde petrol pe RON, iar o parte suficient de mare a datoriei de stat este in valuat externa, valuta ce BNR nu poate tipari.

Ce spun eu da, este zapacitor si a fost si inca este valabil. Pana in 2008 actiunile BNR incurajau supra consumul atat a sectorilui privat cat si a celui de stat. Acum cand sectorul privat nu mai are capacitate de a se indtora, supraconsumul revine statului ce in 3 ani a resuit aproape sa isi tripleze datoria publica raportata la PIB.

SuccessHR spunea...

Abia acum am gasit intamplator articolul. Da, bine argumentat teoretic, insa nu exista nicio dovada clara ca asa s-au intamplat lucrurile.

i-conomics spunea...

SuccessHR: Daca ai net... cauta pe Google declaratiile "oficiale" .. plus nenumaratele comentarii asa zis economice din acea vreme.

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