joi, 5 ianuarie 2012

Dezinformare Statistica

Cunoscutul autor Mark Twain spunea in ordinea gravitatii de la mic la mare: “There are lies, damned lies and statistics” (Exista Minciuni, Minciuni Abominabile si Statistici).

In vremurile nu demult apuse ale Epocii de Aur, statul prin ale sale entitati ne raporta / informa de productii stratosferice la hectar, de cresteri economice continuii fantasmagorice (Produs Intern Brut (PIB)), de inexistenta inflatiei si asa mai departe; minciuni pe fata ce pe bun merit nimeni nu le credea.

In ziua de azi, sub asa zisa democratie, autoritatile statale abilitate sa culeaga date statistice / economice si sa informeze asupra inflatiei, cresterii PIB, variatii salariale, etc, sunt crezute fara cracnire de catre mas media, cetatenii de rand si mai grav de catre mediul financiar - academic. Nimic rau in asta daca informatiile furnizate ar fi corecte real nu doar legal.

Sa dam cateva exemple:

1. Inflatie. Institutul National de Statistica (INS) are o metodologide de calcul a inflatiei legal aprobata ce contine anumte mecanisme ce distorsioneaza grav inflatia raportata, cu potential clar de subestimare.

A. Ajustare Calitate
Sa zicem ca pretul la paine creste cu 10%, ce se va include in “cosul statistic”? O crestere de 10%? Gresit! Se va include o scadere de minus 10%. Cum asa? Datorita ajustarii de calitate! Se permite prin nu stiu ce obscur OG## cresterea cantitatii de aditiv E### folosit ce va permite mentinerea painii proaspete cu 2 zile mai mult deci o imbunatatire de calitate in opinia INS de 10% si de folosirea aditivului E### ce va face painea mai moale deci inca o imbunatatire de calitate de 10% rezultand o totala imbunatatire de calitate de 20%. Ca urmare (+)10% + (-20%) rezulta ca de fapt painea s-a ieftenit cu 10%. Asta este apoi ponderat inclus in cosul de bunuri si servicii pe baza caruia se calculeaza inflatia si voila, rezulta o inflatie mai mica de cea cea de fapt reala. Din lipsa de spatiu si timp nu abordez o sursa masiva de scadere a inflatiei raportate prin evaluari eronate de imbunatatire calitativa a produselor ce incorporeaza technologii avansate (masini, calculatoare, electrocasnice, etc.)

B. Substitutii
Pentru faptul ca totusi painea a crescut la pret cu 10% vine INS si ne spune ca a scazut consumul de paine cu 30% si a fost inlocuit cu mamaliga! Tinand cont ca 400grame mamaliga este sa zicem cu 50% mai ieftina, vine INS si ne spune ca ponderea din cosul de consum a painii a mai scauzt de fapt cu inca 15% datorita faptului ca o parte din cetateni nu isi mai permit paine si au trecut pe mamaliga. Per total cu ajustarea de calitate costul painii si a substitutului acesteia a scazut conform INS cu 25% chiar daca in realitate pretul a crescut cu 10%. Diferenta intre ce suntem informati si realitate este uriasa, de 35%.

C. Medii Geometrice
Nesatisfacuti de efectele deflationiste prin folosiorea Substitutiilor sus mentionate, statisticienii au hotarat sa foloseasca medii geometrice in loc de aritmetice pe cosul de bunuri si servicii pe baza caruia se calculeaza inflatia. Mediile geometrice au darul de a scadea arbitrar ponderea bunurilor si serviciilor ce cresc in pret in favoarea celor care au crestere zero rezultand astfel in inflatie raportata adeseori mult sub cea reala. 

D. Pondere Cos Bunuri si Servicii pe baza caruia se calciuleaza inflatia
Teoretic pentru a putea observa si estima o schimbare trebuie sa comparam mere cu mere. In cazul inflatiei acest lucru nu este valabil, an de an comparam mere cu pere, apoi pere cu portocale si asa mai departe. INS stabileste adeseori arbitrar schimbari de preferinte de consum si ca urmare ponderea procentuala din cos a unui anumit serviciu sau bun variaza. Foarte interesant este coincindeta faptului ca in general bunurile si serviciile care cresc cel mai mult in pret li se scade ponderea iar cele ce scad sau stagneaza li se mareste ponderea dinclo de modificari ce ar putea fi considerate de bun simt.
De neignorat este si ponderea inflationista a consumului statului de bunuri si servicii prin ale sale investitii si achizitii de servicii si consumabile. Ca urmare a presiunilor exercitate de forurile UE, marja de profit real si ca urmare costul bunurilor si serviciilor achizitionte de stat au scazut comparativ cu evolutiile de pret ale pietii libere ca urmare avem in ultimi ani un efect ce aparent pare deflationist, ce trage in jos inflatia raportata; totusi spaga nu cred ca poate fi contorizata in evaluarea statistica.
Nu mai adug lipsa din cos a rezidentialului, lucru ce reprezinta cea mai importanta cheltuiala in viata tuturor. In America spre exemplu acesta are o pondere ~25%. Va imaginati ce inflatie am fi avut in anii 2006 – 2008 cand pretul imobilellor s-a triplat?


2. Produs Intern Brut (PIB)
Sa asumam ca ni se raporteaza o crestere a PIB nominal cu 4% ce combinat cu o inflatie raportata de 2% rezulta la o crestere de PIB neta de 2%. Prin metodologia de calcul sus mentionata, foarte usor o inflatie raportata de 2% poate de fapt sa fie de 6% si ca urmare o crestere de PIB nominal de 4% sa fie in realitate o scadere economica de 2%.
Ingrijorator pare sa fie imprumutarea din aleii vestice a pomparii PIB via autoconsum. Faptul ca o importanta parte a populatiei traieste din subzistenta via 3 gaini si 5 stiuleti de porub, nimeni nu contesta, dar atunci cand incepi sa contabilizezi la productie si consum “discaunturi” oferite de vanzatori, si auto consum a la mi-am spalat singur geamul ca atare am avut un venit si un consum de x ce se contabilieaza in PIB, incepem sa avem probleme majore suplimentare distorsiunilor provenite via ajustrea cresterii la inflatie.

Subordonarea politica a unor institutii de stat gen Institutul National de Statistica sunt din start un conflict de interes; ce partid politic aflat la putere ar nominaliza o conducere alta de cat una capabila sa cosmetizeze “legal” informatiile pentru a da bine capitalului politic?

Metodologiile de calcul legale a Inflatiei, PIB, etc, dezinformeaza alte entitati ale statului, entitati juridice private si cetateni de rand ce ca urmare a informatiilor primite iau decizii gresite si complet daunatoare lor insile si cu efecte semnificativ negative macroeconomic asupra intregii tari.

A. STAT
Supraestimarea de crestere PIB, subestimarea inflatiei si asa mai departe genereaza predictii gresite a veniturilor viitoare si deci deficite bugetare surpriza ce sunt finantate adeseori prin credite si nu rareori prin mariri de taxe, ambele foarte daunatoare pe termen atat scurt cat si lung intregii economii.

B. FIRME
Subestimarea inflatiei de catre firme insemna targetarea gresita a unui profit nominal ce in realitatea ajustat la o inflatie adevarata poate de fapt insemna pierdere si deci decapitalizarea invizibila a multor firme din Romania. (sindromul “am profit an de an dar o duc tot mai prost si nu stiu de ce”)
Supraestimarea PIB poate insemna productie de catre firme peste capacitatea de absorbtie a pietii prin crestere si ca urmare stocuri marite si o volatilitate mai mare a ciclurilor economice cu efecte deseori dezastruase in materie de lichiditate pe termen scurt si mediu.

C. PERSOANE FIZICE
Subestimarea inflatiei poate duce la saracirea omului de rand ce isi tine economiile muncite din greu la banci ce ofera dobanzi ce apparent sunt mai mari ca inflatia dar in realitate adeseori nu acopera pierderea puterii de cumparare. Un ban de zile negre sa zicem pentru batranete pus deoparte la banca astfel isi poate pierde o mare parte din puterea de cumparare pana in momentul in care el trebuie sa fie folosit.

25 de comentarii:

Lucian spunea...

Pe termen lung, ar trebui ca diferenţele de preţuri să devină atât de mari încât să nu mai poată fi ascunse prin metodologie. Se întâmplă?

i-conomics spunea...

Lucian, Se intampla , dar datorita fenomenului numit "UITARE"... se uita. In plus, devizele de rezistenta USD si EUR fata de care ne comparam mereu in ceea ce priveste pastrarea puterii de cumparare a RON se devalorizeaza si ele in ritm alarmant, inflatia calculata pe tarmul USD si EUR find calculata in acelasi mod; INS doar de acolo a invatat.

Dupa revolutie un apartament Ceausit costa sub zece mii de USD, acuma costa de 10 ori mai mult; apartamentul este acelasi, valoarea banului este mai mica, scauzuta prin inflatie cauzata de crearea de moneda fara acoperire.

gilbertins spunea...

Jos cu palaria.Sunteti un adevarat erudit.Contribuiti enorm de mult la educatia reala economica a oamenilor interesati sa cunoasca adevarul.

gheorghe spunea...

Si daca toata lumea si-ar calcula singura inflatia si ar sti toti cat e de fapt sau daca ar fi o institutie care sa fie cea mai credibila dpdv al metodologiei incat sa-i convinga pe toti sa o foloseasca, s-ar rezolva toate problemele? :)

i-conomics spunea...

@ Gheorge:

Daca inflatia ar fi calculata corect din pacate nu s-ar rezolva toate problemele, ci doar o parte.
Probabil politicienii nu ar mai avea posibilitatea sa ascunda sub presul unei inflatii nereal de mici variate actiuni incompetente si sau uneori rau intentionate. Oamnii de rand ar putea sa isi protejeze mai bine banii cu greu economisitii, iar firmelel si antreprenorii autohtoni ar putea fi mai performanti deoarece modelelel lor economice nu ar pleca de la premize gresite.

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